Measuring Impact of Nuclear Power on CO2 Emissions

Case of Poland

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The Paris Agreement aims to reduce the risks and effects of climate change. To this end, radical action is required, including a change in the energy mix towards zero-emission energy. One of the possibilities is the responsible development of nuclear energy. This monograph is the result of an international research project coordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency on the potential role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change. Within this framework, a multisectoral macroeconomic model has been developed and tested for assessing the impact of different energy supply options on the decarbonisation process. The book presents both methodological and practical aspects of model construction, as well as simulation results for the scenario of implementation of the nuclear program included in the draft Energy Policy of Poland until 2040.


Liczba stron178
WydawcaWydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
ISBN-13978-83-8142-819-4
Numer wydania1
Język publikacjiangielski
Informacja o sprzedawcyRavelo Sp. z o.o.

Ciekawe propozycje

Spis treści

  1. Introduction    7
  
  1.1. Power sector and GHG emissions    7
  1.2. Polish nuclear power plant program    9
  1.3. Motivation    12
  
  2. Energy policy and GHG emissions    17
  2.1. Energy mix issues    17
  2.2. Analytical review of official strategic documents    24
  2.2.1. Analysis of The Chancellery of the Prime Minister    25
  2.2.2. Scenarios of the Warsaw Institute for Economic Studies    30
  2.2.3. The assumptions of the Ministry of Energy    32
  2.2.4. Forecasts of the Energy Market Agency    33
  2.2.5. Deloitte report for the Ministry of Economy    35
  2.2.6. Scenario analysis “Coal in the Polish energy sector by 2050”    37
  2.3. Differences and similarities in the results of studies and their sources    42
  2.4. Recommended approach and recent developments    46
  
  3. Estimates of costs of nuclear energy    51
  3.1. Determinants of lifetime projection cost    51
  3.1.1. Capital costs    51
  3.1.2. Operating costs    55
  3.1.3. Other costs    57
  3.2. Cost estimation model and assumptions    59
  3.3. Results    65
  3.4. Conclusion    69
  
  4. Input-output methods for power system analyses    71
  4.1. Data for modelling    71
  4.2. Classical models of input-output analysis    74
  4.2.1. Basic models    74
  4.2.2. Applications of fundamental models    79
  4.3. Multipliers of IOA    83
  4.4. Forecasting of technical coefficients    86
  4.5. Including a new activity    88
  4.6. Modelling energy and emissions    91
  4.6.1. General approach    92
  4.6.2. Equations of air pollution from fuel combustion    95
  
  5. IAEA Empower model and its properties    99
  5.1. IAEA models for energy planning    99
  5.2. Theoretical model    101
  5.3. Implementation of the model for Poland    105
  5.3.1. Data collection and adjustment    105
  5.3.2. Implementation and launch of the model    106
  5.4. Exploring properties of the model    109
  5.4.1. Scenarios    109
  5.4.2. Analysis of the results    118
  
  6. Impact of Nuclear Power on CO2 Emissions in Poland    127
  6.1. Empower.pl.cc    127
  6.2. Simulation Assumptions    128
  6.2.1. Economy    128
  6.2.2. Nuclear program costs    130
  6.2.3. Demand for electricity and power generation mix    133
  6.3. Scenarios and results    145
  6.3.1. Change of power structure and power mix    146
  6.3.2. Changes in energy efficiency    148
  6.4. Simulation results    149
  
  7. Conclusions and recommendations    159
  
  References    163
  Appendix    167
  List of Figures    175
  List of Tables    177
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